In Greece, no national authority currently provides updated population projections based on well-documented alternative scenarios for the coming decades. The most recent (and rather preliminary) projections by ELSTAT date back to 2007, while those prepared by the Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses (LDSA) on behalf of Dianeosis think tank were published in 2016.
Although recent projections are available from international organizations (Eurostat–EUROPOP 2023 and UNPP 2024), these only partially satisfy Greece’s specific analytical needs. This is because such organizations, which produce projections for numerous countries, are by their nature unable to conduct systematic, in-depth work developing alternative, evidence-based assumptions and scenarios tailored to each national context.
To address this gap, Dianeosis think tank commissioned the Institute for Demographic Research and Studies (IDR) to produce updated national population projections.
Methodological Framework
The projection exercise takes as its starting point the population estimates provided by ELSTAT as of 1 January 2023, disaggregated by sex and single-year age groups. The projection horizon spans thirty years, ending on 1 January 2053. Projections are produced at five-year intervals—specifically for 1 January 2028, 2033, 2038, …, and 2053.
The development of the projection scenarios draws on the conclusions of prior analyses concerning fertility and mortality trends in Greece, as well as on a set of core assumptions about broader socio-economic dynamics that affect population reproduction in Greece and in other advanced economies.
Scenarios and Assumptions
Four alternative scenarios were developed, differing only in their assumptions regarding future fertility trends. Mortality assumptions remain constant across all four scenarios.
For the mortality component, a relatively optimistic scenario has been adopted, assuming increases in life expectancy at birth of +5.0 years for men and +3.8 years for women, and at age 65 of +3.7 and +2.9 years, respectively. Given the excess mortality among older age groups observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, this scenario leads to only a modest increase in the expected number of deaths over the projection period.
The adoption of a single mortality scenario was based on two main considerations: 1) Given the current age structure of the population, and drawing on international projection experience, variations of immortality would have only a limited impact over the next few decades on the size of older age groups, the total population, and natural population balances up to the early 2050s; and 2) Consequently, doubling the number of scenarios (from four to eight) by introducing “high” and “low” mortality variants would add little analytical value to the key questions addressed in this projection exercise.
Objectives
This projection exercise seeks to answer two principal questions:
1) How will alternative fertility trajectories influence the total population size and age structure of Greece in the coming decades?
2) What role could net migration play—if deemed necessary—in mitigating the decline of both the total population and key working-age cohorts (particularly those aged 20–64), as well as in moderating population ageing, measured by the proportion of persons aged 65 and over in the total population?